The Counterfactual Question

LinkedIn Post 02: The Counterfactual Question

An economically booming zone receives a CRE project. AI model calculates it will create 300 jobs.

But here's the question nobody asks:

How many of those 300 jobs would have been created anyway?

If natural economic growth was already generating 50 jobs/year, then 100+ jobs would have existed regardless. Genuine additive benefit might be 200 jobs, not 300.

This is the counterfactual. And it's absent from most social value reporting.

SVGA-COUNTER fixes this. Every benefit claim must specify baseline conditions. Social value = outcome minus what would have happened anyway.

This changes everything about how projects get scored.

#SocialValue #Evaluation #Methodology #GoodGovernance